A New Residential Order?: The Social Geography of Visible Minority and Religious Groups in Montreal, Toronto, and Vancouver in 2031

According to the author, ethno-demographic projections indicate that while Montreal is likely to undergo changes that mirror the general Canadian situation, Toronto and Vancouver are likely to have a social geography that is entirely new to Canada. Overall, Montreal will still have a smaller proportion of Visible Minorities (projected at 31 percent) in 2031 than that in Toronto or Vancouver. In Montreal, about nine out of ten Whites will live in White-dominated areas, while the Visible Minority population will be spread across neighbourhoods of all types (i.e. characterized by the full range of Visible Minority or White concentration), indicating a fairly high degree of ethno-cultural mixing. By contrast, Toronto and Vancouver are projected to become 'majority-minority' cities. The author believes that these changes will also be reflected in inter-generational dynamics. In Montreal, the propensity for members of Visible Minority groups to reside in enclaves will likely tend to dissipate across generations to an extent greater than that already observed in the past. Considering religious affiliations, the author points out that all three cities will see a growth in the population with non-Christian religious affiliations. In Montreal the Sikh community and, to a slightly lesser extent, the Jewish community, are projected to have a high degree of isolation. By contrast, the city's Muslim population are projected to have the least degree of isolation among non-Christian categories.

April 12 2017

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