Assessing the Likelihood of a Threatening Event: English Canadians' Evaluation of the Quebec Separatist Movement

The author contrasted attitudes of 191 English Canadians living in Quebec in 1970 with attitudes of a comparable, nonthreatened group of Canadians living outside of Quebec. Measures were obtained relating to: (a) perceived causes of French Canadian dissatisfaction, (b) perceived strength of the separatist movement, (c) amount of information regarding separatism, (d) degree of opposition to separatism, and (e) estimated likelihood of Quebec's eventual separation from Canada. On the basis of group differences and within-group multiple regression analysis, the author observed that estimated likelihood of separation varied inversely with strength of opposition to separation, and directly with knowledge of the separatist movement. The author proposed that a subject's estimate of the likelihood of a threatening political event was the result of two competing factors: (a) his desire to minimize the prospect of an undesirable event, and (b) his awareness of the social conditions giving rise to that event. The author argues that fear motivates denial of a threat, but that the strength of the denial process could be sharply attenuated by the knowledge of the threatening event.

Journal of Personality and Social Psychology

Vol. 15

no. 2

109-117

June 1970

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